How will the economic basic conditions develop in 2024?

At the start of the new year, we are all looking ahead to the challenges that lie ahead. In order to develop suitable business models and strategies, it is important to realistically assess the economic conditions.

It appears that the global economy is growing at a stable rate of 2.5% overall, although the regions are developing quite differently: While leading economic research institutes expect accelerated growth in South America and India, the Chinese economy, which has been growing strongly to date, is only expected to grow by less than 5% in 2024. In the USA and Europe, experts are forecasting growth of 1.5% in each case, with zero growth predicted for Germany.

Driven by scarce raw materials and tense labor markets, high inflation is expected to persist globally, while inflation growth in Germany will continue to decline.

Interest rates will gradually fall again in 2024. Led by the US Federal Reserve, the ECB will follow with interest rate cuts in summer 2024 at the latest.

The Fuchs Letters expect global climate protection to become less important because the industrialized countries will strive to secure prosperity and the emerging countries will see their priority in economic growth. As a result, in addition to the expansion of renewable energy sources and hydrogen technologies, fossil energy sources will also become more involved again and nuclear energy will regain importance.

In addition to observable trends towards de-globalization, structural disadvantages of the German industrial location, in particular high personnel and energy costs, will continue to drive production relocations abroad. In Germany, the number of company insolvencies will increase. In addition to high personnel costs, the worsening shortage of skilled workers in Western European countries will increasingly become a factor limiting growth. The ability to automate processes and the development and use of company-specific AI models will have a greater impact on the competitiveness of companies in 2024.

These expectations for the development of the economy represent both challenges and opportunities for companies. Let’s tackle them! Maybe, consultingcheck can help with information and tools.


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